I have a prediction to make: Facebook, as we know it now, will fall, soon.
By soon, I mean, real soon. I think it has a shelf life of around 6 more months, and we’ll see a serious slump in numbers. I’m not sure why I have such conviction about it, but I do. It started as a feeling. A growing irritation with all the notifications I kept receiving. All the pointless stuff people were asking me to add to my page. All the weird invites to fringe groups supporting causes I’d never heard of.
So I thought about it, and then developed a hypothesis to support my theory. Here it is, if you’re interested:
1. Facebook is a great idea
2. Great ideas are great because they open your eyes to something new.
3. Once something is not new anymore, people will start looking for the next great idea.
4. However, people will stay if the idea becomes an essential component of your life (e.g. a word processor, toaster, etc.)
5. Facebook is not an essential component of my life.
I think it’s going to be hard for Facebook to stay relevant. Many people are talking about Facebook being the next Microsoft; and about Mark Zuckerberg being the new Gates. Marc Andreessen, the guy who developed Netscape, wrote a while back that Facebook is a platform, not an application – and that was why it would take over the world. (I also wrote about it on Ideate.co.za)
Andreessen was right about the platform thing. The problem is, though, that the only applications people are developing for it are silly widgets.
These widgets are not essential components.
This needs to change, or Facebook is in trouble. Zuckerberg has to figure out how to keep us engaged. We’re getting bored real quick, and unless either he, or one of the 50,000 Facebook developers out there (most of who are frantically designing things like ‘Buy Me A Love Bite’ and ‘What Kind Of Telly Tubby Are You? – Forward to a Friend!’), creates a killer application like MS Word for Windows, we’re moving on.
In the meantime, how do I turn my Facebook account to ‘Stand By’?
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I’m not sure it will die – I think there are enough people getting something useful out of it to sustain it – but I agree that it will peak and drop off. I find I am visiting Facebook for work purposes (monitoring and commenting on groups and updating page) but spending v. little time on my own and my friends’ pages and news feeds.
I am glad that Facebook has added ‘Block this application’ so you only have to deal with each app once (remember the multitude of vampire, zombie, etc invites you used to receive), but it’s like a triple opt-out – three clicks before you can move on to the next. The ‘Ignore All’ widget is also useful.
However, a sure-fire way to clean up facebook is to allow an opt-out of all application invitations. Why can’t I just choose the applications that appeal to me from seeing what my friends have added in my news feed?
Ye, I agree Anthony, Facebook will not die (the heading is just for dramatic effect, really). Thing is though, I don’t know that there is enough of a pull to make it stick when the next thing comes about.
The only thing I really go to now is my chess thing where I have a couple of games going.
Now, on the other hand, iGoogle, combined with Google Apps – that’s something to watch, I reckon…
Looking back this is a little funny.
Yep, yep… it’s certainly one of those ‘predictions’ you kinda wish you’d kept to yourself : P
In retrospect though, the Facebook then and the Facebook of today are VERY different animals. They have indeed managed to create an essential platform – a platform on which people can chat, send messages, sell products and now even transact.
This has made it an essential component of everyday life (to a lot of people, although still not me! I don’t even play chess anymore).